Author Govert SchullerPosted on Categories Politics On September 5 The New York Times took the unprecedented step to publish an anonymous opinion piece titled “I am a Part of the Resistance in the Trump Administration“. According to the NYT the op-ed was written by a “senior official in the Trump administration“, who claims that there is an organized ‘resistance’ operating at the highest levels of the Trump administration trying to prevent Trump from making adverse decisions on international trade and national security. The piece is a veritable ‘bombshell’ and is in need of some analysis.
According to one commentator, a political scientist, what the ‘resistance’ in the Trump administration is doing is merely an amplification of the usual dialectic between an administration and its bureaucracy with the latter in this case pushing back more effectively against policies it deems wrong or dangerous. According to him, it’s not a silent coup of sorts, but it is more like business as usual with a more proactive ‘stable state’ compensating for where the president is either ignorant or reckless. As he observes, “Bureaucrats are notorious for managing leaders from below“. This dialectic was brilliantly satirized in the British sit-com “Yes, Minister” and the follow-up “Yes, Prime Minister”.
Another framework to put into place here is to keep the differentiation of conservatives into three main factions in mind: libertarian (the Pauls); status quo (the Bushes); and the authoritarian (Trump &co). My sense of the op-ed writer is that he aligns himself with the classic liberal status quo tradition as expressed for example by McCain, to whom he is very deferential, and is opposed to the authoritarian faction with its anti free press and anti-democratic tendencies.
But this analysis would only apply to the tug of war surrounding the policy formation process. The added dimension making the picture quite different is Trump’s mental state and intellectual capacity. Now we need ‘adults’ in the room to contain the worst impulses of, according to experts, an immature, vindictive, narcissistic person. And these adults cannot just walk away from their position and sound the alarm hoping to trigger a political process that would handle the problem.
So, what are the options of these ‘status quo classic liberals’ within the Trump administration? Starting a 25th amendment process will not result in the required solution to the problem, i.e. the removal of this president. First you need both VP Pence and a majority of the cabinet, most of whom I think are corrupt opportunists lacking political principles. And even if there is a cabinet majority invoking the 25th Trump can refuse to step down in which case it goes to congress where removal would need a 2/3 majority in both chambers. Given the spineless attitude of the Republicans in congress I would not count on a 2/3 majority. And the ‘resistance’ own assessment was that it would trigger a constitutional crisis, which they rather avoid.
The other track for the ‘resistance’ to pursue is to trigger or wait for impeachment of the president. I’m sure they are helping Mueller and the press to make the case to have Trump impeached. The sheer amount of leaks and contacts with the press might be for a large part an intentional strategy to get outside help to contain the president on the short term and remove him on the long term. But a conviction of Trump needs a 2/3 majority in the senate, which is improbable given the current deferential attitude towards Trump by Republican senators.
Given the improbability of a satisfactory outcome of both the 25th amendment and impeachment process the ‘resistance’ has only one choice left and that is to sit it out till 2020 hoping he will not be re-elected, which might be one of the few sure outcomes we can count on. Till then, according to the op-ed, this group will have to stay in place to prevent Trump from starting wars against North Korea or Syria, keep the pressure on our adversaries like Russia and keep intact US security alliances and trade deals with its international partners.
The question though remains why this person came forward with the op-ed at this moment. After all, it blows off the lid of this ‘resistance’ group in the administration and might push Trump into even more reckless decisions based on an intensified paranoia. What was there to gain? Is it part of a strategy? Is it a cri de coeur for outside help from the US citizenry as the Republicans in congress are not to be counted on? Did the writer just snap and released the op-ed to blow off steam?
Personally I think it was based on a consensus decision by this group and aimed at a specific outcome. As some speculate that congress now has to step in with hearings about the functionality of the executive branch, maybe that’s what they wanted. Or they are preparing for a group confrontation of the ‘resistance’ with Trump &co (Miller, Ivanka, Kushner, Giuliani) trying to make the case that Trump should voluntarily resign for the good of the country and that Pence will continue his agenda.
Maybe it is a ‘the time is ripe’ moment counting on the accumulating momentum of indignation created by the emotional, well publicized and adroitly politicized funeral of Senator McCain; the publication of Bob Woodward’s new explosive book Fear: Trump in the White House, describing a chaotic administration lead by an incompetent leader; and then the big battle in the US Senate over the controversial and very conservative Judge Kavanaugh nominated for the Supreme Court by Trump because, as some speculate, Trump very much likes the judge’s position that presidents, when in office, should not be bothered with legal procedures and are therefore temporarily above the law.
Whatever the ‘resistance’ is aiming at short term, I think they should come out with at least one person stepping forward and publicly make the case as they see it, and with which assessment many would agree, that the current president is not capable to execute his responsibilities and should step down. One way or another in the near future there will be a constitutional crisis over Trump’s presidency, either triggered by Mueller, congress, his cabinet, the Supreme Court or state prosecutors, so it might as well be triggered by the ‘resistance’.