On Trump: The Steele Report Echoing the Golitsyn Deception?

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Ten days before the inauguration of Trump an anonymous bombshell intelligence report was published by Buzzfeed.[1] The report, written by former British MI6 agent and Russia expert Christopher Steele, alleges that 1) Russian intelligence has compromising material on Trump gathered when he visited Leningrad and Moscow a few years ago; 2) there were extensive and frequent contacts between people high in the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence; and 3) that intelligence was swapped between the two parties; Trump giving intelligence on Russian oligarchs in the US and Russia reciprocating with ‘opposition research’ on Hillary Clinton. If the report is even half true it will be the biggest political bombshell in recent history, even bigger than Watergate, and will lead to a hopefully short constitutional crisis solved by Trump stepping down as President and the possible arrests of Paul Manafort, Carter Page and Michael Cohen.

 
If false, and the Intelligence Community knew these memos to be false, this will be a very troubling interference by them into the affairs of the US Government and heads will roll.
 
If its truth doesn’t matter in this post-truth age, then you’re in for at least a good spy novel read.
 
The material was widely known apparently in media, intelligence and political circles since the summer of 2016, but were never divulged until CNN found out that a two page synopsis of this material was presented to both Trump and Obama at an intelligence briefing, which might have lend a certain credibility to this set of ‘intelligence memos’.[2] After CNN’s report Buzzfeed decided to publish all the 35 pages of memos to inform the American public of what these allegations were.
 
Apparently the FBI already had these memos before McCain also got a copy and passed them on to the FBI. The believers’ narrative is that the memos were written by a former MI6 agent who had a good reputation for producing believable material. He was hired by both anti-Trump republicans and later by democrats. They also make the case that this material provides the missing background info to understand Trump’s puzzling positive relationship with Russia.
 
The story will not easily disappear. If it is true, which still might be possible, it will blow up Trump. If it is false, which seems to be the current working hypothesis, the focus will be on who fabricated it, when and why.
 
The Wall Street Journal and others think it came from a British private intelligence company named Orbis and that the writer was Christopher Steele, who went underground fearing for his life.[3] He is considered by many to be a reliable source.[4]
 
Obviously, if there really exists a compromising tape, and as long as there is plausible deniability about its existence, the Russians have some power over Trump. If the Steele Memos (or Russian Dossier) are to believed, the Russians did not use any big pressure on Trump because he has cooperated so well with them.
 
Since these memos have become public all parties involved will have adapted their tactics. For example, the Russians will lay low and consistently deny any wrongdoing because they do not want to jeopardize their desired goal of more lenient sanctions or even their total lift. They took a huge risk with helping Trump into the White House in order to have sanctions lifted, because, if found out, there might be a severe backlash and sanctions might increase.

On the other side–and here the full, fascinating wilderness-of-mirrors metaphor is applicable–author, journalist and expert on Russia, David Satter, came up with an alternative explanation of the origin and intentions behind this very controversial Steel Dossier / Trump Report. He thinks that the Russians fed Steele with concocted, but very plausible, compromising information about Trump’s relations with Russian prostitutes, agents and politicians in order to confuse, undermine and demoralize American intelligence, politicians and public.[5] So far that game plan seems to work.

I thought about this possibility before, because Soviet intelligence had probably mounted something similar in the late 1950s when they concocted a very complex but plausible story of Soviet infiltration at very high levels of US intelligence, especially the CIA, and mixed the story with the idea that the big breaks in the international communist world, especially the Russia-China break, were intentional deceptions in order for the Communist bloc to look fragmented and weak to the West. And it was touted as a very smart, very devious long term plan by the Communist world to defeat the West.

This information was carefully fed to one defector, Anatoly Golitsyn, who brought the story to the CIA where the head of counterintelligence, James Jesus Angleton, bought the package, hook, line and sinker. This information triggered an unprecedented mole-hunt within the ranks of the CIA, which had a crippling and polarizing effect on the CIA’s capacity of sorting out genuine defectors from plants and solid information from deceptive fabrications, for example the very tricky question of the extent of Soviet involvement in the JFK assassination about which different defectors presented different stories.[6]

For several reasons I believed the Angleton-Golitsyn thesis on Soviet deception to be correct and wrote an article in 2004 explaining the whole set-up and weaving it together with then stock-in-trade right-wing conspiracy memes about Yale’s semi-secret senior society Skull & Bones and the New York based think tank The Council on Foreign Relations.[7] Though I did not have, then nor now, definitive refutation nor confirmation of the thesis, it was US journalist Ron Rosenbaum who pointed out the possibility that the whole Golitsyn story could have been a very clever concoction of which even the defector himself was not aware.[8]

If Satter’s thesis pans out then Trump and his team could be cleared from most of the Steele allegations, even though the extent of Trump’s financial involvement with Russian oligarchs and Mafya is still unclear, and we can conclude that Russia’s intervention with the US electoral process was one or two layers more devious and smart than most of us might have thought.

Originally posted on Facebook, January 19,  2017.

[1]. Anon. [Steele, Christopher].Trump Intelligence Allegations“. Buzzfeed. 10 Jan 2017. 

[2]. Evan Perez, Jim Sciutto, Jake Tapper and Carl Bernstein, . “Intel chiefs presented Trump with claims of Russian efforts to compromise him“. CNN. 10 Jan 2017. 
 
 
[4]. Nick Hopkins and Luke Harding. “Donald Trump dossier: intelligence sources vouch for author’s credibility“. The Guardian. 12 Jan 2017. 

[5]. Satter, David. “The ‘Trump Report’ Is a Russian Provocation”. The National Review. 12 Jan 2017.

[6]. Books sympathetic to the Angleton-Golitsyn thesis are Edward Jay Epstein’s Deception: The Invisible War Between The KGB And The CIA (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1989) and Mark Riebling’s Wedge: The Secret War Between the FBI and CIA (Alfred Knopf, New York, 1994).

More critical books are Tom Mangold’s Cold Warrior: James Jesus Angleton: The CIA’s Master Spy Hunter (New York: Touchstone, 1991) and David Wise’s Molehunt: The Secret Search for Traitors that Shattered the CIA (New York: Random House, 1992).

[7]. Schuller, Govert. “The Abiding Communist Threat in its Open and Hidden Manifestations“. Alpheus. 4 July 2004.

[8]. Rosenbaum, Ron. “The Shadow of the Mole: Two superpowers, three master spies, four false defectors, five schools of mole lore, and seven types of ambiguity.” Harper’s (October 1983) and in Travels with Dr. Death (New York: Penguin, 1991).

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